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According to a study by the British fine wine investor WineCap, 2023 will be marked by rather weak demand for 2021 Burgundies and top champagnes. "Sentiment around the Burgundy En Primeur campaign has been mixed as the vintage has proved difficult due to low volumes and high prices. The lack of allocations for many top wines, volumes down by around 50 per cent and a 25 per cent increase in prices would have boosted demand for other vintages, such as 2018 and 2020," the experts write.
Demand for Champagne is also weakening somewhat, according to WineCap: "Champagne, which saw an impressive 68 per cent increase between 2021 and 2022, has seen its steepest declines to date in 2023, with a 5.8 per cent drop so far. Wines that have become more affordable include Jacques Selosse Millesime 2008 and Louis Roederer Cristal 2013." According to Winecap, there is also currently no Champagne among the top 20 up-and-comers. This is "a big change compared to the past two years".
At the same time, there was good news for Bordeaux investors. The report said: "This quarter, two of the most discussed Bordeaux vintages were in the critics' spotlight. Several critics had published their scores for the filled 2020 vintage, leading to strong price increases for some wines such as Montrose and Mouton Rothschild."
Further, WineCap writes: "In Q2, the focus will be on the en primeur release of the 2022 vintage - a year characterised by heat and drought, with yields below the ten-year average. While quality is expected to be high according to the CIVB vintage report, it remains to be seen how prices will compare attractively with the critically acclaimed and available 2019 wines."
On top of that, he said, the oft-maligned 2011 vintage received a boost from the Chinese New Year: It was the last "hare" vintage in the Chinese animal calendar, he said. As a result, several wines had set new trading records on the Liv-ex trading platform. Among them are L'Évangile, Lynch Bages and Vieux Château Certan.
While prices for top wines tended to fall, they showed the first signs of improvement towards the end of the quarter. The Bordeaux 500 recorded the smallest decline in the first quarter (-0.3%). However, this stability had been brought about by wines in demand from "bad" vintages such as 2017, 2014, 2013 and 2011.
(uka / Source: WineCap, Harpers)