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Eight French scientists from INRAE and the universities of Dijon, Avignon and Rennes have summarised several models on the changes in 21 French wine-growing regions due to climate change in a comprehensive study.
According to them, the research project is "the first systematic analysis carried out for most regions of a large wine-growing country". The results suggest that the expected temperature rise could accelerate vine development, favour flowering and cause more heat damage in all French wine regions, especially under Mediterranean climatic conditions. Precipitation is likely to decrease everywhere during the growing season, according to the analysis. The south-western part of France could be the most affected. The lack of water would mainly occur during the ripening period of the grapes, which would lead to an even greater deficit in combination with higher temperatures. However, the changes in precipitation during the final stages of the grapevine are still uncertain. According to the simulations, however, the risk of frost in spring in the future is likely to become a stable factor. However, the high variability of the results depending on the phenology model used still leads to uncertainty here at present.
The researchers analysed the development from 1962-1991 as well as from 1992 to 2021 using climate data from 1985-2014 for the forecast of the period from 2041 to 2070. They coupled 19 standardised climate models with three phenological models and one water balance model. The parameters were adjusted for each region to match current practice as closely as possible.
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(uka)