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French economics professor Jean-Marie Cardebat expects the end of the wine sales crisis next year. Cardebat, who teaches at the international business university INSEEC, stated during a lecture at the Vinitech fair that he is optimistic and dynamic. He compared the historical fluctuations in wine consumption with economic cycles, noting clear correlations. The boom years for wine coincided with periods during and after economic upturns, such as after World War II or the globalization of the 2000s. According to Cardebat, there were downturns during the recession and inflation years of the 1980s, after the financial crisis of 2008, or the crisis in the Chinese real estate market in 2017. Wine has not been a staple food since the 1960s, but rather a luxury product, which is particularly vulnerable to economic cycles. "As soon as inflation and income declines occur, spending focuses on essentials like housing and food," explained Cardebat. He believes the lowest point of the current global economic crisis has been surpassed: "Inflation is currently being brought under control. While there is only weak economic growth, there are also signs of improvement in the USA. American growth will stimulate global trade flows – even if they are currently low. A new economic cycle is quite possible, and this should also improve wine sales." Therefore, he predicts a stabilization of wine consumption in 2025.
Cardebat and advisor Fabrice Chaudier even see the danger that due to the clearing of vineyard areas, "there may not be enough wine to meet a potential increase in demand." While clearings may be a "positive social plan" for struggling winemakers in the short term, they are economically risky because they create space for competition. "If you clear 10,000 hectares in Bordeaux, 10,000 hectares are planted in Mexico," criticizes Cardebat. These are markets that should have been developed earlier.
Cardebat calls for a counter-cyclical strategy: "Difficult decisions must be made when things are going well." This includes agronomic investments such as grafting red to white grape varieties or relocating vineyards to higher, cooler locations. "The money that is now being spent on destruction could be used for a conversion," says Chaudier, who criticizes that the wine industry often acts without foresight: "When it drives against a wall, it does so head-on and at full speed."
(al / Source: vitisphere)