Climate change could significantly alter the map of California's wine production. Especially Napa and Sonoma are at risk of losing significant climatic suitability for vines by the end of the century. In contrast, cooler coastal regions like Mendocino and Monterey could benefit. This is shown by a study from Japan's Tohoku University, published in the journal "Frontiers in Climate".

The researchers combined climate models with data from 379 vineyard locations and considered not only temperature and precipitation but also weather conditions for wildfires. According to the study, warming during the growing season has a particularly strong effect. With continued high greenhouse gas emissions, it could become significantly warmer in today's California wine-growing areas between 2070 and 2099. During the growing season, much more heat would accumulate, while the lowest winter temperatures could rise by four to five degrees. For Napa and Sonoma, this means: The climate could become too warm for many of the grape varieties currently grown there.

Mendocino and Monterey perform relatively well: there, the suitability for viticulture could increase, while the number of days with particularly high wildfire risk decreases. In many other future suitable areas, however, the fire risk increases simultaneously.

The grape variety could also become more important for adaptation. The model calculation for Sonoma suggests that Chardonnay is rated better in years with low fire risk, while Pinot Noir tends to maintain its quality at higher fire risk. However, the identified differences are small.

The authors emphasize that the results do not represent a concrete prediction of individual fires. The model does not take into account ignition sources and fire paths, nor possible smoke damage. Adaptation strategies of the wineries were also not included.

(ru – Image: 123rf)

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